In the last two months, Kwara State politics has gradually transformed into a sophisticated chessboard where strategic calculations, silent alliances, political decoys, and subtle manoeuvres are unfolding behind the scenes.

The emergence of candidates by the major political parties may appear straightforward. But to close watchers of Kwara politics, developments within both the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) reveal a deeper contest driven by strategy, ambition, and political survival.

Indeed, some aspirants spent huge sums purchasing nomination forms and mobilising supporters, yet even within their own camps, many understood that certain ambitions were less about actual victory and more about tactical positioning in a larger political chess game.

The first major surprise came when Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq publicly endorsed Ambassador Yahaya Seriki from the Ilorin Emirate in Kwara Central Senatorial District as his preferred successor. That endorsement appeared to settle months of speculation suggesting that the governor was quietly promoting a candidate from the predominantly non-Yoruba-speaking Kwara North, allegedly in response to perceived preferences from influential interests in Abuja for a candidate from the Yoruba-speaking Kwara South.

Yet, in a dramatic twist, the governors preferred consensus arrangement was eventually jettisoned by the APC national leadership, which insisted on a direct primary election.

At the end of the tense two-day exercise, the Speaker of the Kwara State House of Assembly, Salihu Yakubu Danladi from Kwara North, defeated all the aspirantsmost of whom were from the Ilorin Emirate in Kwara Centralincluding a respected lawyer, professor, businessmen, heads of federal institutions, as well as serving and former senators, to clinch the APC governorship ticket.

But the counter-move from the PDP was equally strategic. Reading the unfolding permutationsand noting the implications of the APC producing a Kwara North candidate despite the dominance of aspirants from the Ilorin Emirate in Kwara Centralthe PDP leadership, under former Senate President and two‑term governor Bukola Saraki, quickly moved to unify its ranks. The party rallied other aspirants behind Engr. Sulaiman Bolakale Kawu Agaka, a Yoruba‑speaking Fulani from Ilorin, as its consensus candidate, signalling a strategic attempt to consolidate the traditional Kwara Central political bloc.

Thus, the stage was set for another major political confrontation in Kwaraone that revives the enduring Saraki-AbdulRazaq rivalry that has largely defined the states political direction since 1999, and not necessarily from the 2019 O To Ge political revolution alone.

Meanwhile, emerging opposition parties have also unveiled their governorship candidates. The African Democratic Congress (ADC) has announced Hon. Zakari Mohammed, a former member of the House of Representatives from Kwara North, as its consensus flag-bearer. Similarly, there is also media speculation that National Democratic Congress (NDC) is poised to either endorse Mallam AbdulRahman Giwa, a cousin of the governor from Kwara Central or Engr Jamiu Bolaji as its candidate.

Whether these emerging parties are genuine alternative platforms or merely strategic spoilers capable of weakening stronger contenders within their respective senatorial zones remains a matter of political interpretation.

Without venturing into speculative calculations about voter distribution across Kwara North, Kwara South, and Kwara Centralwhich could be both instructive and politically sensitiveone indisputable reality remains: both Yakubu Danladi and Bolakale Kawu have emerged as the major contenders, each possessing distinguished professional and personal credentials beyond partisan politics.

Born on May 31, 1985, in Gwanara, Baruten Local Government Area, Yakubu Danladi hails from a modest but respected family. The son of the late Alhaji Salihu Aliyu, the Tafarkin Borgu, his journey reflects discipline, focus, and steady growth. He completed his secondary education at St. Anthony Secondary School, Ilorin in 2001, before earning both National and Higher National Diplomas in Electrical/Electronic Engineering from Kaduna Polytechnic, followed by a Bachelor of Engineering degree from the Federal University of Technology (FUT), Minna.

He lectured at FUT Minna from 2010 to 2018 before venturing into politics in 2019 where he won the Ilesha/Gwanara Constituency seat and, at just 34, became Speaker of the 9th Kwara State House of Assemblyone of the youngest in Nigeria. He retained both his seat and speakership in 2023, strengthening his influence within the APC.

His PDP challenger, Engr. Bolakale Kawu Agaka was born on May 1, 1969, in Ilorin. He hails from the Agaka lineage within the celebrated Alimi dynasty of the Ilorin Emirate. His educational background spans Electrical Power Engineering, Administration, and Business Management, with qualifications from Kwara State Polytechnic, Federal University of Technology Akure, and Ladoke Akintola University of Technology.

Following his National Youth Service with the defunct National Electric Power Authority (NEPA) in 1996, he built an extensive career within Nigerias power sector, eventually rising to become Executive Director of the Rural Electrification Agency before retiring from public service in 2025.

Throughout his years in service, Kawu developed a reputation for philanthropy, youth empowerment, and community development. Significantly, Governor AbdulRazaq himself publicly commended his contributions during his turbaning as Dan Iyan Ilorin in 2022.

Today, beyond his technocratic credentials, Kawu also carries the influential traditional title of Daniyan of Ilorina title that gives him considerable cultural and social influence within the Ilorin Emirate.

What makes the unfolding contest particularly fascinating is that both parties appear to have chosen their candidates not merely on popularity, but through deeper strategic calculations involving geography, identity, succession balance, and voter psychology.

For the APC, presenting a youthful Speaker from Kwara North signals a strategic bid to consolidate northern support while leveraging the advantages of incumbency. For the PDP, rallying behind a respected technocrat and traditional titleholder from the Ilorin Emirate reflects an effort to rebuild the Saraki‑era coalition in Kwara Central while appealing to both elite and grassroots sentiments.

Beyond posters and endorsements, Kwara 2027 is quietly unfolding as a sophisticated political chessboard. If Kwara North aligns firmly with Danladi and Kwara Central stands solidly behind Kawu, could Kwara South become the decisive battleground? In this evolving contest, the next governor is likely to emerge from the camp that best understands the delicate arithmetic, emotional undercurrents, and shifting dynamics of Kwaras political chess game.

Yushau A. Shuaib is author of An Encounter with the Spymaster yashuaib@yashuaib.com

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Senator Saraki, Danladi of CCT, Magu of EFCC

Bukola Saraki: Between CCT and EFCC
By Yushau A. Shuaib

“I swear by the Almighty Allah to do justice. We are all human beings and not God, we must be fair and just,” – Umar Danladi

Those were the words of the Chairman of Code of Conduct Tribunal (CCT), Danladi Umar at the resumed hearing on the trial of Bukola Saraki on May 17, 2016. He said he was under “serious influence” during the trial of Asiwaju Bola Tinubu in the same court in 2011, when President Goodluck Jonathan was in power. He, however, said he defied the excessive pressure and discharged Tinubu, an opposition leader, over allegations of false assets declaration. (Thisday https://goo.gl/tH6tu9)

The same judge recently discharged and acquitted Senate President Bukola Saraki over an asset declaration case. Immediately after the judgement, the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) was said to have threatened to invite the Chairman of the CCT over alleged corrupt practices. (The Nation: https://goo.gl/Wfv3pL)

The said corruption charge which anti-corruption agency wants to probe Danladi had already been cleared by the same EFCC under Ibrahim Lamorde in 2015 (Sahara Reporters: https://goo.gl/tnPTVV).

Not only that, on April 20, 2016, the EFCC under current Acting Chairman Ibrahim Magu further cleared CCT boss through an official letter with reference number EFCC/P/NHRU/688/V.30/99 which stated inter alia, ‘‘We would like to reiterate the Commission’s position in regard to this matter as earlier communicated to you and state that the allegations levelled against Justice Umar were mere suspicion and consequently insufficient to successfully prosecute the offence”. The spokesperson for the EFCC, Wilson Uwujaren even confirmed the clearance too. (Premium Times: https://goo.gl/nvvPSB)

The case of Saraki just like that of Tinubu is believed in many quarters to be politically motivated. The miraculous manner he emerged the Senate President against all odds and his strong opposition to a Muslim-Muslim ticket for the APC in the build-up to the 2015 general elections were major reasons for Saraki’s persecution and prosecution, based on his claims. (NAIJ: https://goo.gl/HYkBkR)

While many were disappointed with the judgement of CCT over Saraki’s case to the extent that some groups were cursing his family and his associates, it is necessary to look at the grounds for the acquittal. A mere allegation of offence does not guarantee a conviction for guilt. It is a popular saying in law that “he who alleges must prove that the accused actually committed the crime before the court can make any pronouncement.”

The main function of the EFCC is to fight economic and financial crimes but not to usurp the power of Code of Conduct Bureau (CCB) which is constitutionally empowered to prosecute cases under false declaration of assets. In prosecuting their case against Saraki, the government through its prosecutors called for only 4 witnesses and tendered 48 exhibits during the trial.

The first witness, Michael Wetkas, who is an EFCC operative admitted that he neither obtained any statement from Saraki nor interviewed him on the charges before the court. Meanwhile, Wetkas admitted that there was no evidence to show that Saraki did not declare a piece of property in London. Adding that he had no detailed information regarding the alleged undeclared property. (The Cable: https://goo.gl/b4HUnF)

The second witness, Amazu Nwachukwu invited by EFCC to be its witness was emphatic that he knew nothing about the purported foreign account operated by Saraki. He added that the bundle of documents in his possession at the tribunal was presented to him by the prosecution and that he was just asked to read the documents and not that he knew anything about them since he was not the author. (The Sun: https://goo.gl/ucn2aJ)

The third witness who is the Head of Investigation of the CCB, Samuel Madujemu admitted that Saraki indeed declared his assets and that of his wife and his children when he held office as Kwara State Governor. (The Guardian: https://goo.gl/fzusGL)

He further claimed that his agency had no formal report of the investigation carried out on the assets of Saraki. According to him, it was EFCC’s investigation after Saraki becomes Senate President that led to the arraignment on asset declaration. He further dropped a bombshell when he said: “On the documents so far tendered at the tribunal against Saraki, the documents were sourced by the EFCC operatives on the joint investigative team and I cannot speak for them here. In fact, I am not familiar with every aspect of the exhibits tendered because we in the CCB did not generate them.” (DailyPost: https://goo.gl/CBkniW)

In a desperate move for damage control after the contradictory evidence by the three witnesses, another banker, the fourth witness Mr. Bayo Dauda of GTB denied ever seeing any foreign account allegedly operated by Saraki. The Banker said he had never worked with foreign banks to know how they open accounts for their customers. He boldly stated that the documents presented to him to give evidence were handed over to him by EFCC when he reached Abuja and that he was neither the maker nor the signatory to the documents and as such, he will not be in a position to verify documents prepared by another person. At the last hearing day, he told the Tribunal that the contentious document inquired by the Tribunal patterning the transaction of the defendant cannot be found.” (PRNigeria: https://goo.gl/cGr7f4)

Meanwhile, as all the EFCC witnesses gave contradictory and weak evidence, the Justice Danladi Yakubu Umar, and his colleague on the bench, Agwadza Atedze upheld the no-case submission of the Senate President and consequently discharged and acquitted him. The tribunal stated that the evidence of the prosecution witnesses was manifestly unreliable and that no court could attach value to such let alone convict on it. The tribunal also stated that the testimony of the CCB Staff, who admitted that his report was based on information from his team members, rendered the whole evidence linking the defendant to the alleged offences invalid, adding that no conviction could be made on hearsay. (Punch: https://goo.gl/J5453B)

The tribunal explained that the admittance of the EFCC staff under cross-examination that Saraki was not invited for clarification on the grey areas in his assets form, grossly affected the competence of the charges, adding also that the claim by another banker that all documents it had linking Saraki to the alleged offences were lost in a fire accident further neutralised the evidence. ( DailyNigerian: https://goo.gl/GFmxJ6)

Since the case is going to the Appeal court for further judicial review, it is now time to allow the judges to perform their constitutional roles before we further engage in distractive media trial over a simple legal matter. (Daily Trust: https://goo.gl/ajd2uQ)

The two members of CCT panel deserve commendations and not knocks for their bold and courageous adjudication on this matter in spite of the intense pressures and distractions from powerful political forces.

Yushau Shuaib
www.YAShuaib.com
yashuaib@yahoo.com
Abuja

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