Nigerias political landscape is gradually heating up ahead of the 2027 general elections. Yet, beyond permutations of power, recent personal encounters have exposed a deeper concernhow dangerously our national discourse is drifting toward divisive narratives of religion and ethnicity.

Recently, I confronted a disturbing social media post by a purported Northern Muslim denigrating Jesus over political provocation. As a devout Muslim, I condemned the post unequivocally. Such conduct is not only irresponsible but fundamentally contradicts Islamic teachings. The Holy Quran accords profound respect to Christians and Jews, and to their scriptures, while honouring Jesus as the Messiah and the Word of God.

In urging restraint, I appreciated the solidarity shown by members of the Christian community and reminded both faiths that they share far more in common than what divides them. Yet, within hours, another troubling episode emerged. A Nigerian-born commentator based in America, Ejike Okpa, posted Facebook content portraying Muslims as terrorists. As a friend, I simply responded: I am a Muslim, not a terrorist. The reactions and comments that followed, especially from those I often referred to as Werekaci were unsettling and disgustingand it raised a fundamental question: will religion and ethnicity shape the political choices of the next generation as we approach 2027?

It was against this backdrop that I joined the Editor of Economic Confidential, Abdulrahman Abdulrazaq, in the inaugural PRNigeria Journalist vs PR Strategist podcast debate on whether an emerging opposition coalition could unseat an incumbent administration. While my colleague is an avowed supporter of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, I deliberately adopted a balanced positiongrounded in facts and objective analysis.

At the centre of current political calculations is the African Democratic Congress (ADC), which is evolving into the most formidable opposition alliance, similar to a coalition that eventually produced the All-Progressives Congress (APC), with Muhammadu Buhari as its presidential candidate. It was the coalition that ultimately unseated the then‑ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) under President Goodluck Jonathan in 2015.

The irony is striking. Several of the very architects of that 2015 APC triumph Atiku Abubakar, Rabiu Kwankwaso, Nasir el-Rufai, Rotimi Amaechi, Aminu Tambuwal, Rauf Aregbesola have now converged on the ADC to challenge the very man whose political machinery was central to that historic victory: Bola Tinubu.

History offers perspective. The 2015 Buharis APC coalition secured about 15 million votes (53%), defeating Jonathans 12 million (44%). It was a coalition built on strategy, shared grievance, and disciplined unity.

By contrast, the 2023 election was the most competitive since 1999. Tinubu won with 8.7 million votes (36.61%). Atiku Abubakar secured 6.9 million (29.07%). Peter Obi (Labour Party) garnered 6.1 million votes (25.40%), while Kwankwaso (NNPP) obtained 1.4 million votes (6.23%). Notably, the top three candidates each won 12 states, while Kwankwaso secured only Kano State.

Although Tinubu, who chose Senator Kashim Shettima as his running mate, met the constitutional threshold of 25% in at least 24 states, the geography of the vote revealed a fragmented mandate. Tinubu dominated the Southwest and parts of the North-Central, but Peter Obi achieved the unthinkable by defeating the incumbent in his Lagos stronghold, sweeping all the southeastern states and FCT. Meanwhile, Atiku Abubakar cleared most of the Northeast and Northwest.

More significantly, the combined votes of Atiku, Obi, and Kwankwaso exceeded 15 millionnearly double Tinubus tally. On paper, this arithmetic presents a compelling case for a unified opposition. Together, they commanded electoral strength across more than 25 statesenough to satisfy constitutional requirements. But elections are not won on arithmetic alone.

The real challenge lies in unity, ego management, and coalition discipline. Nigerian political history is replete with alliances that collapsed under the weight of personal ambition. The same forces that could make the opposition formidable could also render it fragile.

The 2023 experience is instructive. Obis refusal to serve as a running mate and Atikus miscalculation in overlooking Nyesom Wike as his deputy weakened the opposition and accelerated the fragmentation of the PDPa party that once governed Nigeria for sixteen years.

While an AtikuObi alignment may constitute the most formidable opposition configuration against the TinubuShettima ticket, alternative permutations are likely to be politically unviable or suicidal.

While an AtikuObi alignment would represent the strongest opposition configuration against the TinubuShettima ticket, alternative permutations may amount to political futility or suicidal.

While the opposition coalition is anchoring its campaign on prevailing insecurity and socioeconomic instability, President Tinubus administration has taken steps to address political sensitivities. Northerners occupy key security positions, including the Defence Ministers and the National Security Adviser, while prominent Christians head major economic institutions, including the Finance Ministers and the Central Bank Governormoves widely interpreted as efforts to balance concerns arising from the Muslim-Muslim ticket.

The administrations revenue reforms particularly through the Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS) have also increased allocations to subnational governments via the Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC). Similarly, Nigerias measured diplomatic response to external pressures, including reckless remarks by U.S. President Donald Trump on alleged religious persecution, averted unnecessary geopolitical escalation seen in countries such as Venezuela and Iran.

Yet, beyond governance, the power of incumbency remains decisive. Control of institutions, influence over political structures, and access to state resources often shape electoral outcomes beyond public sentiment.

Equally concerning is the growing intrusion of ethnoreligious sentiment into political discourse. Supporter groups across party lines have, at times, resorted to divisive rhetoric that undermines national cohesion. If unchecked, such narratives risk overshadowing critical debates on the economy, security, and governance.

There is also the question of external influence. Claims that foreign actors could shape Nigerias electoral outcomes should be approached with caution. Global experience suggests that domestic realities ultimately prevail.

For both the ruling party and the opposition, the lessons are clear. If the opposition fails to consolidate, history may repeat itself. Similarly, if the ruling party becomes power drunk or tampers with its winning formula, it could also face unexpected consequences. In the end, 2027 will not merely be a contest of candidatesit will be a test of democratic maturity.

The gladiators on both sides would do well to study history. Nigeria has seen this script beforeand the ending is rarely flattering.

Yushau A. Shuaib is the author of An Encounter with the Spymaster. Email: yashuaib@yashuaib.com

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By Yushau A. Shuaib

Senator Kashim Shettima, a charismatic and eloquent politician, demonstrated exceptional leadership by proactively spearheading the Bola Tinubu presidential campaign, even before the aspirant’s official declaration.

At the time, some long-time loyalists of Bola Tinubu, including those he had appointed to offices during his governorship of Lagos (1999-2007), those he had influenced their appointments in strategic positions (2007-2015) and those he had endorsed for top public offices during the presidency of Muhammadu Buhari (2015-2023), were opposed to the Jagaban’s aspiration.

Undeterred, Shettima, a skilled political strategist, championed Tinubu’s brand, defying the presidency’s body language and the APC leadership’s political machinations.

Shettima’s journey is a testament to his unwavering dedication and resilience in pursuing his beliefs. From his humble beginnings as an Agricultural Economist, earning his BSc and MSc from reputable Nigerian universities to his transition from academia to banking and eventually politics in 2007, his path is a shining example of inspiration and recognition.

During his tenure as Commissioner under Governor Ali Modu Sheriff, Shettima oversaw various portfolios, including Finance, Education, Agriculture, Health, Local Government and Chieftaincy Affairs. Significant achievements marked his leadership as Governor of Borno State from 2011 to 2019.

His commendable efforts in tackling the Boko Haram insurgency, such as establishing and funding the Civilian JTF, a youth volunteer group supporting the military in counter-terrorism efforts, are a testament to his capabilities. His peace-building initiatives included rehabilitating victims of terrorism, remodelling schools, and building new boarding primary and junior secondary schools to accommodate over 50,000 unaccompanied orphans whose parents were killed by insurgents across the state’s 27 local government areas. As Chairman of the Northern States Governors’ Forum, he was pivotal in promoting national unity and driving critical changes in the region.

As he sought a Senate seat at the close of his tenure in office, Shettima showcased selflessness and trust in his protg, Professor Babagana Umara Zulum, who he groomed to succeed him as the Governor of Borno State in 2019. Both men emerged victorious in the election as a testament to their effective partnership. He resisted the temptation to micromanage or exert undue influence over his successor, instead allowing Zulum to lead independently. This exemplary relationship between a political godfather and a godson starkly contrasts the often contentious dynamics between governors and their successors, making it a shining example of harmonious transition and leadership.

During his time in the upper legislative chamber of the National Assembly, Senator Shettima discreetly championed Asiwaju Bola Tinubu’s presidential aspirations before launching a robust and inclusive campaign in 2022. His efforts contrasted with the apparent apathy of many Northern politicians, governors, and cabinet members from the previous administration toward Tinubu.

The Senator passionately advocated for the North to reciprocate Tinubu’s instrumental role in actualising Muhammadu Buhari’s long-held presidential ambition, framing it as a moment of payback and political reciprocity.

One of the three governors of the defunct All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) that merged with other parties to form the APC, Shettima repeatedly told his audience that Tinubu not only supported Buhari through thick and thin, he had also previously shelved his ambition to support two northern presidential aspirants former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and former EFCC Chairman, Nuhu Ribadu even when Northern elements were against both of them. His repeated political catchphrase, targeted at the conservative Northern elites, was: “We are people of honour; we should honour our pledge and promise. This is payback time for the north to support Tinubu.”

He pointedly stated that Buhari’s popularity in the North was not enough to secure the presidency until he was repackaged, rebranded and resold by Tinubu to Nigerians, especially in the South-West in 2015.

His relentless campaign and pivotal role influenced Northern politicians in his party to soft-pedal and embrace Tinubus campaign team.

After winning the convention, Tinubu nominated Shettima as his running mate, and they eventually won the election in 2023.

It’s intriguing, therefore, to note that after President Tinubu’s inauguration, the Shettima we now see in the Presidency, as the Vice President, is not like the ebullient person we knew. This stark contrast in his demeanour has left some of us deeply unsettled.

Since Tinubu’s government was inaugurated in May 2023, the vibrant and outspoken Shettima seems to have become a shadow of himself. Unlike previous holders of the same office, his current position as Vice President seems less defined. Some agencies that should be under his supervision have been merged with other ministries that relate directly to the President, raising questions about his current influence and responsibilities.

Despite this, Shettima has earned a reputation for exceptional leadership and hospitality towards people of all faiths and ethnicities. He is the most detribalised public officer in Tinubu’s government, with at least 70 per cent of his aides from diverse backgrounds. A Kanuri man, he exemplified the same inclusive leadership while he was Governor by assembling a diverse team that reflected his values, consisting of individuals from various tribes and faiths, including Hausas, Fulanis, Igbos, Yorubas, Muslims, and non-Muslims, among others.

However, while some ministers are becoming more powerful and influential, it’s disheartening that Shettima could not do much for his people. For instance, he could not defend a renowned incorruptible female Chartered Accountant and a sister from his state, who was unjustly and prematurely retired from a senior position in an agency he supposedly supervised as the Vice President.

There are widespread speculations that a kitchen cabinet of Yoruba from the Lagos axis is running the affairs of the government and that they are responsible for the routine assignments passed to Shettima, such as attending to condolences and other inconsequential visitations.

While Shettima remains loyal to the President, Tinubu should be mindful that some of his major supporters before his inauguration are now bitterly disenchanted, including some retired military generals, former governors, and party chiefs. Many others need to be persuaded and wooed back into the political fold, not because of the ongoing alliance building up between former Vice President Abubakar Atiku, Peter Obi, and other dark horses across the political parties towards 2027, but because it is the right thing to do.

The President should also endeavour to erase the impression of the YorubanisationandLagosationof his government. Some claim that once you can speak Yoruba, especially with Lagosian accents, you will be sure of getting the right connection with this government.

The Presidency needs to painstakingly evaluate its performance in office in the last one year and make serious amends where necessary, especially regarding its relationships with critical political and government stakeholders.

Yushau A. Shuaib is the author of Award-Winning Crisis Communication Strategiesyashuaib@yashuaib.com

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During a visit to Lagos on an advocacy campaign on the need for the diversification of the Nigerian economy in 2004, the Chairman of the Revenue Mobilisation Allocation and Fiscal Commission (RMAFC), Engineer Hamman Tukur told the then Governor Bola Tinubu that any local government created outside the constitution was deemed illegal, according to the provisions of the legislative grundnorm, and hence would not receive allocations from the Federation Account.

Tinubu responded that he would rather intensify the revenue generation and collection drive in Lagos State to sustain the third tier of government, and without the Federation Account, than retract the over 30 newer local governments he had created.

The Department of Allocation at RMAFC, where the present governor of Kogi State, Yahaya Bello, was then a staff, recommended the withholding of federal allocations to any state that created local governments outside the ambit of the 774 constitutionally created and recognised local council areas.

Other states that had created additional local governments at that time, reverted to the formally recognised ones, as President Olusegun Obasanjo, working on the advice from the Commission, suspended federal allocations to the local government areas in Lagos State.

Being the Head of Press and Public Relations at RMAFC between 1999 and 2004 when this went on, my team monitored the ensuing media war over the withholding of local government funds to Lagos State by the Federal Government. Almost all organs of the state government, especially the Executive Council and its members, including commissioners and advisers, alongside public commentators from the Lagos axis, whom we tagged as Tinubus boys, deployed different media strategies to win public support for the position of Lagos State on its right to create newer local councils. And the purported heavy hand of the Federal Government in its dealing with the State.

In fact, apart from my office, the Public Affairs Adviser to President Obasanjo, Barrister Femi Fani-Kayode was the most vocal voice against Tinubu and his loyalists on that public discourse. Even lawyers recruited by Governor Tinubu, through his Attorney General and Commissioner of Justice, Professor Yemi Osinbajo (the current Vice President), had to write a very lengthy rejoinder against Femi Fani-Kayodes position. I recall that the lawyers who had signed the rejoinder then were Senior Advocates of Nigeria (SANs) including Wole Olanipekun, Rickey Tafa, Taiwo Osipitan, and Kola Awodein.

Surprisingly, and to the amazement of many, despite the suspension of funds to the State, in a manner that could forestall development and breed economic and geopolitical crises, the government in Lagos started to generate more revenue than what the Federal Government could have released to it from the Federation Account till date.

Some years later, precisely in 2012, while in a discussion about the stubbornness of some politicians, Mallam Yusuf Alli of The Nation newspapers had made a call and handed the phone to me, saying, Speak to the Jagaban!

Although initially shocked, I was subsequently impressed by the humane and compassionate disposition of Tinubu when he explained to me that our positions are not borne out of stubbornness but to provide leadership by example through courage, fearlessness, equity and justice to serve and empower our people.

He even cracked some jokes and explained in detail what leadership entails.

When Tinubu recently declared his intention to contest for the Presidency, I recalled those closer encounters in assessing his personality. Surprisingly, I have been shocked to the marrow on realising that most of the virulent attackers, since the declaration of his presidential ambition, have not only been from his geopolitical zone, the South-West, but some are also from the camp of his past loyalists Tinubu boys who were his erstwhile defenders, such as during the period of the withheld council funds. And others who had benefitted from his goodwill to gain nominations and appointments into public offices at the state and federal levels.

It is quite worrisome to observe that when Tinubu was aggressively promoting and supporting the aspirations of many to top public offices, they hailed him to the high heavens; but now that he is seeking a high public office himself, they have turned on him with passionate hatred. They, who once extolled him as the Jagaban, the Leader and the Last man standing when he helped give wings to their ambitions, now describe him as old, sickly and corrupt because of his political ambition.

Senator Kashjim Shettima and Northern APC Leaders for Tinubu

Meanwhile, the most vocal and leading voices lending support to Tinubu’s aspiration at this seeming last moment of his political career, are mostly APC northern leaders led by former governor of Borno State and now federal senator, Kashim Shettima.

These Northern campaigners have pointed out the political debt owed Tinubu and pleaded with President Muhammadu Buhari to reward him for what he did for the All Progressives Congress in the 2015 and 2019 elections, by giving him the right of first refusal to the presidential ticket. They see this as a decent payback.

On the claim that Tinubu is physically unsuitable for the Office of the President due to his age, Senator Shettima has pointed out that the presidency is not a job for bricklayers. According to him, the mark of true leadership isnt the ability to lift a bag of cement, but having the requisite experience in governance, being able to design innovative public policy, and putting the right team that will implement this together.

The Northern campaigners have reminded Buhari that, In 2015, some aspirants with very huge war chests were itching to clinch the ticket of the APC, but like the Rock of Gibraltar, Asiwaju and his progressive team stood solidly behind the candidacy of President Buhari.

While I am also deeply concerned about Tinubus health, considering what befell President Umar Musa YarAdua in office and the fact that Buhari too was almost done in by age and ill-health, earlier in his administration, yet I regard the more recent life given to allegations of Tinubus past misdemeanour in his climb to wealth and reckoning as a common feature characteristic of most successful politicians in Nigeria.

Unfortunately, it is very difficult to point out a successful politician in public office in Nigeria who has never been accused whether true or false of age falsification, certificate forgery or corrupt practices, among other unbecoming acts.

As we keep making efforts at perfecting our system to check and push back the ills in our political processes, we should continually seek to enhance and manage our democracy in its content and form, including the highly critical area of leadership recruitment.

Meanwhile, if I could advise Tinubu, the kingmaker, on his dream of becoming a king himself, I would rather say: You have right to your aspiration, but if under extreme pressure to step down, you might as well consider Vice President Yemi Osinbajo, your topmost ally from the South-West, for support to become the most powerful Nigerian. Or, Senator Orji Kalu, a former governor from the South-East. Or, the minister of Transportation and former governor of Rivers State, Rotimi Amaechi, from the South-South. Or even the youngest presidential aspirant of the moment, Governor Yahaya Bello of Kogi State from the North-Central, a region that is yet to produce an elected president or vice to date.

Yushau A. Shuaib, author of “An Encounter with the Spymaster” and “Crisis Communication Strategies” blogs at www.YAShuaib.com yashuaib@yahoo.com

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