A single word has quietly colonised Nigerias pre-election vocabulary consensus. It is deployed with confidence, knowing they will not be challenged. Yet what is being paraded as consensus in many states today is nothing of the sort. It is imposition laundered, repackaged, and dressed in democratic clothing.

With the 2027 elections only months away, at least 22 governors have already endorsed President Bola Ahmed Tinubu as their consensus presidential candidate. At the state level, these same governors are replicating the model downward anointing successors, selecting senators, choosing members of the House of Representatives, and determining state assembly tickets. Children of politicians, relatives of the wealthy, and allies of the powerful some lacking experience, exposure, or even basic qualifications are suddenly emerging as consensus candidates.

Meanwhile, the electorate, for whom this entire democratic architecture supposedly exists, watches from the sidelines. This is not a democracy. It is a hostage situation in Agbada.

This crisis traces back to President Bola Tinubus closed-door meeting with APC governors, after which he effectively empowered 31 of them to determine the fate of aspirants in their states. Kwara State Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq later confirmed that the President had given governors latitude to conduct primaries through consensus or direct voting. What sounded procedural in Abuja has since reshaped politics nationwide, granting governors sweeping control over who advances and who is quietly removed from the path.

Senior lawmakers reportedly appealed to the President for automatic tickets, but he maintained that governors hold the real influence in their states. The result is growing unease within the party, especially among federal legislators who lack strong ties to their governors.

One is tempted to feel sympathy for these lawmakers. One is tempted but it is difficult. Many of them helped build this structure. They defected, genuflected, and complied only to now discover that the machinery of impunity does not distinguish between victims and collaborators.

This pattern is already visible across several states. In Nasarawa, Governor Abdullahi Sule has named Senator Ahmed Wadada as his preferred successor, while associates of former Inspector General of Police Mohammed Adamu allege pressure on ward executives to endorse that choice. In Ebonyi, Governor Francis Nwifuru presided over a meeting where aspirants were openly anointed, prompting former Governor David Umahi to insist that no one be barred from buying forms. The state APC later warned that defying the governors directive would be treated as disloyalty.

In Adamawa, elders of the Gongola Peoples rejected what they described as attempts to impose a governorship candidate. In Ogun, APC members in Ijebu East protested alleged imposition of legislative candidates. In Yobe, a photograph of Governor Mai Mala Buni raising a preferred aspirants hand signalled that the decision had effectively been made.

Similar tensions are emerging elsewhere: in Borno, Governor Babagana Zulum is reported to have endorsed a preferred aspirant against the wishes of Vice President Kashim Shettima. In Kwara, Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaqs choice is said to conflict with preferences attributed to the presidency. Reports from Gombe also suggest resistance to a candidate viewed as misaligned with local expectations.

The deeper danger is that manipulation can hide inside the law itself. The Electoral Act permits consensus primaries, and INECs 2026 Regulations allow parties to choose candidates through direct, indirect, or consensus methods. Consensus, when genuinely negotiated, is lawful and even efficient. But there is a vast difference between a true consensus and one manufactured through gubernatorial pressure. One reflects democracy; the other is a procedural disguise for illegitimacy.

What is at stake is not the comfort of politicians but the confidence of 93 million registered voters heading into the 2027 elections. Many already believe their votes do not matter and that outcomes are predetermined a belief reinforced by a triangle of compromise involving security agencies, INEC, and the judiciary.

Political elites deepen this distrust by framing defections to the ruling party as guarantees of victory, regardless of voter choice. When governors hand pick candidates before delegates even vote, they are not only sidelining aspirants they are sidelining the voter. The message is unmistakable: your preference was never part of the process.

This is the quiet coup no one is naming loudly enough. The ballot box is becoming a prop a ritual used to ratify decisions already made in government houses across the 36 states.

At this critical juncture, three institutions must rise to the occasion. First, the President, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, as leader of the ruling establishment, must resist the temptation to condone or benefit from these distortions. Leadership demands not just political survival but the protection of democratic norms. Silence risks normalising practices that undermine the system itself.

Second, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), under Chairman Prof. Joash Amupitan, must assert its constitutional authority more firmly. It is not enough to supervise general elections while ignoring the flawed processes that produce candidates. Electoral integrity begins at the primaries. Without credible candidate selection, even the most transparent general election becomes a compromised exercise.

Third, the judiciary, long regarded as the last hope of the common man, must guard against becoming an instrument for legitimising illegitimacy. The Chief Justice of Nigeria, Hon. Justice Kudirat Kekere Ekun, must ensure that courts prioritise substantive justice over technicalities. A judiciary that consistently validates the outcomes of corrupt processes becomes a co author of those processes. History does not forgive that.

Ultimately, the greatest casualty of consensus abuse is the Nigerian voter. Nigerias political history shows that imposed candidates rarely produce stability: the winner of a manipulated primary often enters the general election weakened, while the aspirant who quietly accepts a consensus defeat may later contribute to the partys internal fractures. The fallout between Atiku Abubakar and Nyesom Wike in 2023 remains a reminder of how unresolved disputes can shape a partys future. Voters, too after being told their voices do not matter tend to remember, and sometimes respond decisively.

Nigeria is approaching another such moment. Reports indicate that within the major opposition party, supporters of Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso are considering defections to other platforms due to internal tensions involving Atiku Abubakar. Meanwhile, decisions being made in government houses across the federation will shape far more than who wins in 2027. They will determine whether that election strengthens Nigerias democratic development or accelerates its democratic decline.

The coming week may prove decisive for the political process leading to the 2027 general election. The gladiators may be deciding the tickets. But the people sovereign, long suffering, and watching will have the final say. They always do.

Yushau A. ShuaibAuthor of A Dozen Tips for Media Relations, yashuaib@yashuaib.com

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Nigerias political landscape is gradually heating up ahead of the 2027 general elections. Yet, beyond permutations of power, recent personal encounters have exposed a deeper concernhow dangerously our national discourse is drifting toward divisive narratives of religion and ethnicity.

Recently, I confronted a disturbing social media post by a purported Northern Muslim denigrating Jesus over political provocation. As a devout Muslim, I condemned the post unequivocally. Such conduct is not only irresponsible but fundamentally contradicts Islamic teachings. The Holy Quran accords profound respect to Christians and Jews, and to their scriptures, while honouring Jesus as the Messiah and the Word of God.

In urging restraint, I appreciated the solidarity shown by members of the Christian community and reminded both faiths that they share far more in common than what divides them. Yet, within hours, another troubling episode emerged. A Nigerian-born commentator based in America, Ejike Okpa, posted Facebook content portraying Muslims as terrorists. As a friend, I simply responded: I am a Muslim, not a terrorist. The reactions and comments that followed, especially from those I often referred to as Werekaci were unsettling and disgustingand it raised a fundamental question: will religion and ethnicity shape the political choices of the next generation as we approach 2027?

It was against this backdrop that I joined the Editor of Economic Confidential, Abdulrahman Abdulrazaq, in the inaugural PRNigeria Journalist vs PR Strategist podcast debate on whether an emerging opposition coalition could unseat an incumbent administration. While my colleague is an avowed supporter of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, I deliberately adopted a balanced positiongrounded in facts and objective analysis.

At the centre of current political calculations is the African Democratic Congress (ADC), which is evolving into the most formidable opposition alliance, similar to a coalition that eventually produced the All-Progressives Congress (APC), with Muhammadu Buhari as its presidential candidate. It was the coalition that ultimately unseated the then‑ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) under President Goodluck Jonathan in 2015.

The irony is striking. Several of the very architects of that 2015 APC triumph Atiku Abubakar, Rabiu Kwankwaso, Nasir el-Rufai, Rotimi Amaechi, Aminu Tambuwal, Rauf Aregbesola have now converged on the ADC to challenge the very man whose political machinery was central to that historic victory: Bola Tinubu.

History offers perspective. The 2015 Buharis APC coalition secured about 15 million votes (53%), defeating Jonathans 12 million (44%). It was a coalition built on strategy, shared grievance, and disciplined unity.

By contrast, the 2023 election was the most competitive since 1999. Tinubu won with 8.7 million votes (36.61%). Atiku Abubakar secured 6.9 million (29.07%). Peter Obi (Labour Party) garnered 6.1 million votes (25.40%), while Kwankwaso (NNPP) obtained 1.4 million votes (6.23%). Notably, the top three candidates each won 12 states, while Kwankwaso secured only Kano State.

Although Tinubu, who chose Senator Kashim Shettima as his running mate, met the constitutional threshold of 25% in at least 24 states, the geography of the vote revealed a fragmented mandate. Tinubu dominated the Southwest and parts of the North-Central, but Peter Obi achieved the unthinkable by defeating the incumbent in his Lagos stronghold, sweeping all the southeastern states and FCT. Meanwhile, Atiku Abubakar cleared most of the Northeast and Northwest.

More significantly, the combined votes of Atiku, Obi, and Kwankwaso exceeded 15 millionnearly double Tinubus tally. On paper, this arithmetic presents a compelling case for a unified opposition. Together, they commanded electoral strength across more than 25 statesenough to satisfy constitutional requirements. But elections are not won on arithmetic alone.

The real challenge lies in unity, ego management, and coalition discipline. Nigerian political history is replete with alliances that collapsed under the weight of personal ambition. The same forces that could make the opposition formidable could also render it fragile.

The 2023 experience is instructive. Obis refusal to serve as a running mate and Atikus miscalculation in overlooking Nyesom Wike as his deputy weakened the opposition and accelerated the fragmentation of the PDPa party that once governed Nigeria for sixteen years.

While an AtikuObi alignment may constitute the most formidable opposition configuration against the TinubuShettima ticket, alternative permutations are likely to be politically unviable or suicidal.

While an AtikuObi alignment would represent the strongest opposition configuration against the TinubuShettima ticket, alternative permutations may amount to political futility or suicidal.

While the opposition coalition is anchoring its campaign on prevailing insecurity and socioeconomic instability, President Tinubus administration has taken steps to address political sensitivities. Northerners occupy key security positions, including the Defence Ministers and the National Security Adviser, while prominent Christians head major economic institutions, including the Finance Ministers and the Central Bank Governormoves widely interpreted as efforts to balance concerns arising from the Muslim-Muslim ticket.

The administrations revenue reforms particularly through the Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS) have also increased allocations to subnational governments via the Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC). Similarly, Nigerias measured diplomatic response to external pressures, including reckless remarks by U.S. President Donald Trump on alleged religious persecution, averted unnecessary geopolitical escalation seen in countries such as Venezuela and Iran.

Yet, beyond governance, the power of incumbency remains decisive. Control of institutions, influence over political structures, and access to state resources often shape electoral outcomes beyond public sentiment.

Equally concerning is the growing intrusion of ethnoreligious sentiment into political discourse. Supporter groups across party lines have, at times, resorted to divisive rhetoric that undermines national cohesion. If unchecked, such narratives risk overshadowing critical debates on the economy, security, and governance.

There is also the question of external influence. Claims that foreign actors could shape Nigerias electoral outcomes should be approached with caution. Global experience suggests that domestic realities ultimately prevail.

For both the ruling party and the opposition, the lessons are clear. If the opposition fails to consolidate, history may repeat itself. Similarly, if the ruling party becomes power drunk or tampers with its winning formula, it could also face unexpected consequences. In the end, 2027 will not merely be a contest of candidatesit will be a test of democratic maturity.

The gladiators on both sides would do well to study history. Nigeria has seen this script beforeand the ending is rarely flattering.

Yushau A. Shuaib is the author of An Encounter with the Spymaster. Email: yashuaib@yashuaib.com

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From the airport to the city centre, one could not miss the growing visibility of Professor Ali Isa Pantami, the former Minister of Communication and Digital Economy. His images adorned commercial vehicles and strategic locations, signalling what many interpret as an early but deliberate build-up of political momentum.

I must state upfront that Pantami is a brotherly friend with whom I have shared years of a professional relationship. He listens, reflects, and applies constructive criticismeven when such engagement is not publicly acknowledged. Over time, this trait has shaped my own perspective about him, transforming me from a critic into an admirer of his policy-driven approach to governance.

This evolution informed my decision to author Pantami: Trials and Triumphs of a Digital Economy Maestro, a work that chronicles his reform agenda, policy battles, achievements, and controversies during his tenure in public office. His role in navigating complex institutional disputesfrom multiple taxation in the telecom sector to the NIN-SIM linkage challenges and stamp duty controversiesdemonstrated an uncommon capacity to manage bureaucratic tensions within Nigerias digital ecosystem.

Equally significant were the external pressures he confronted, including the ASUU versus IPPIS/UTAS dispute, the controversy surrounding his professorship at Federal University of Technology Owerri (FUTO), and allegations linking him to extremist narratives. These episodes tested his resilience, yet they also reinforced his ability to withstand public scrutiny.

Beyond controversies, Pantamis legacy in expanding Nigerias digital infrastructure is undeniable. Institutions such as the National Centre for Artificial Intelligence and Robotics (NCAIR), the Office for Nigerian Digital Innovation (ONDI), the National Digital Innovation and Entrepreneurship Centre (NDIEC), and the Nigerian Data Protection Commission (NDPC) stand as enduring pillars of his contribution to the countrys digital transformation. These initiatives not only strengthened the countrys digital ecosystem but also created new economic opportunities.

Given this background, his entry into the gubernatorial race under the All Progressives Congress (APC) was not a surprise. What is more intriguing, however, is the intensity of reactionsboth supportive and oppositionalthat his ambition has generated.

During my interactions with journalists, academics, students, and even artisans in Gombe, I sought to understand the political terrain beyond social media narratives. The responses I received were candid, diverse, and, in some cases, sobering.

There are indeed forcesboth within the state and at the federal levelwho would prefer alternative candidates to emerge as the APC flag bearer. For some, Pantamis perceived bluntness, independent-mindedness, and principled stances make him a difficult figure within conventional political structures. For others, it is simply a matter of competing interests and entrenched loyalties.

To move beyond speculation, I probed further: who are the likely contenders?
At the federal level, names such as Senator Saidu Ahmed Alkalia two-term senator and former Minister of Transportationfeature prominently. His political network and relationship with Vice President Kashim Shettima are seen as strategic advantages. Similarly, Hon. Usman Bello Kumo, a three-term member of the House of Representatives and Chief Whip, is widely regarded as a formidable contender with strong legislative backing.

Within the state, influential figures such as the Commissioner for Finance and Economic Development, Muhammad Gambo Magaji, and the Accountant-General, Prince Aminu Umar Yugudaboth considered close allies of Governor Inuwa Yahayaare also being mentioned in political calculations.

From the private sector, Dr. Jamilu Isyaku Gwamna, former Managing Director of the Kano Electricity Distribution Company (KEDCO), is reputed to possess strong financial backing and elite networks. Other notable figures include Architect Yunusa Yakubu of Nobel Nigeria Ltd and Engr. Aliyu Mohammed (Combat) of the Velocity Groupboth successful entrepreneurs with growing political interest.

While many of these aspirants are yet to formally declare their intentions, Pantami has already taken the decisive step of publicly announcing his ambitionan indication of confidence and readiness.

The critical question, however, is not just about who is contesting, but what the electorate truly desires. Pantami arguably enjoys a unique advantage in name recognition, intellectual pedigree, and a public service track record that resonates beyond partisan lines. His blend of religious scholarship, technological expertise, and administrative experience positions him differently from traditional politicians.

Yet, politics is rarely decided by credentials alone.

There are legitimate concerns about whether his technocratic style can seamlessly translate into grassroots political leadership. There are also debates about the role of religious scholars in partisan politicsa discourse that often surfaces in Nigerias complex socio-political environment.

However, such arguments must be approached with balance. Nigeria has seen Christian clerics ascend to governorships. The 2023 elections were spectacular as two ordained Christian ministers Rev. Fr. Dr. Hyacinth Iormem Alia, a Catholic priest, and Pastor Umo Eno, founder of All Nations Christian Ministry International were sworn in as Governors of Benue and Akwa Ibom States, respectively. Many observers viewed this as a culmination of longstanding advocacy by the Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN) for greater Christian participation in politics.

It would therefore be inconsistent to deny an Islamic scholar the same democratic opportunity to test his competence through the ballot. Ultimately, democracy thrives on choice, not exclusion.

As observersparticularly those of us who are not direct participants in Gombes political processit is neither our place to impose candidates nor to dismiss legitimate aspirations. We can advocate for a fair, transparent, and competitive process that lets the best ideas and leadership qualities emerge.

Yushau A. Shuaib, the Author of An Encounter with the Spymaster writes from ysashuaib@yashuaib.com

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The title of this article was the exact question posed by a senior security official at an informal breakfast in August. It was at a time when speculations were rife that Chief Femi Fani-Kayode would defect to the All-Progressives Congress (APC) from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).

I have always referred to Femi Fani-Kayode (FFK) as a “Fire-for-Fire” advocate, since February 2004 when I wrote a rejoinder to his unacceptable public outburst while he was Special Adviser on Public Affairs to the then President Olusegun Obasanjo. My rejoinder exposed the loophole in a statement Fani-Kayode had issued against Colonel Dangiwa Umar, a former military administrator of Kaduna State, and General Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida (IBB), over an issue they had with Obasanjo.

In the article, which was widely published and titled, PR Analysis of Fani-Kayodes Rejoinder on Dangiwa Umar, ( Read https://yashuaib.com/2004/02/pr-analysis-of-fani-kayodes-rejoinder-on-dangiwa-umar/), I had criticised him for using high-sounding, derogatory expressions, such as pathological liar, treachery, ingratitude, destructive fake, suffer a form of delusion of grandeur and misguided sense of self-importance, among others, against the subjects of his diatribe.

While appealing to ethics and utilising the tools of PR to counter his approach, I offered crucial advice to Fani-Kayode. I insisted that a successful publicist is not judged by the power of his/her oratory, expensive regalia and appearance with bodyguards, but by the ability to analyse issues critically, and not in a manner thats so vitriolic and disagreeable even when pushing an issue he or she is so passionate about. I added that amiability, humility and openness to criticisms, are not weaknesses but attributes of a good communicator who equally has a clear mission.

With his combative postures and bombastic public engagements, Fani-Kayode has continued to remain relevant, meeting the right people at the right time, and making the right connections for the right appointments.

Born on October 16, 1960, and named David Oluwafemi Abdulateef Fani-Kayode, he had most of his schooling in Britain. After serving as Chief Press Secretary to the first national chairman of the National Republican Convention (NRC), Chief Tom Ikimi in 1990, he was appointed Special Assistant to Alhaji Umaru Shinkafi, a former head of the Nigerian Security Organisation (NSO).

Thereafter, President Olusegun Obasanjo appointed him as his Special Assistant on Public Affairs in 2003, before he was elevated to the post of Minister of Culture and Tourism, and later as the Minister of Aviation in 2006.

FFK was a member of the PDP until 2013 when he defected to the APC as a founding member. In that initial role, he constituted a continuous thorn in the side of the administration of President Goodluck Jonathan. However, he returned to the PDP in June 2014 to become the spokesperson for Jonathans re-election campaign till 2015.

When his party lost in the presidential election and was hounded by the newer administration, FFK refused to be intimidated. He constantly pushed back and railed against President Buhari, top APC members and the government, taking them to the cleaners for their various perceived unethical acts. His choice of words in tackling those in power was as mercilessly as it was venomous.

Meanwhile, in responding to the enquiry by the senior security source earlier mentioned, I pointed out that FFK had cordial relationships with the detained leaders of the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB), Nnamdi Kanu, and of the Yoruba Nation, Sunday Igboho. I equally emphasised that although the two men are the prominent faces of the secessionist agitation in Nigeria today, they yet have stronger sympathisers and supporters within and outside government.

In some of FFKs engagements with the agitators, he seemed to affirm and encourage their divisive and inciting rhetoric, particularly in terms of the purported Fulanisation, Arewanization and Islamisation agenda of Northerners in Nigeria.

Therefore, I expressed doubt about the possibility of the acceptance of Fani-Kayode into APC by President Buhari and the party stalwarts. I nevertheless mentioned my strong belief that if FFK genuinely renounces his essentialist, if not bigoted, ethnic and religious outlook, he has the potential to add value to political and social stability, in a manner that enhances national security.

A few weeks after the breakfast talk, FFK did not only decamp to APC but was received through a red carpet reception at the Presidential Villa, Abuja, when the APC caretaker chairman, Governor Mala Buni of Yobe State, alongside Bello Matawalle of Zamfara State presented him to President Buhari.

The reception was also greeted with wild attacks across Nigerias political spectrum. Surprisingly, the majority of those condemning Fani-Kayode for decamping to APC now were the same ones commending him then when he was attacking the North, its leaders and the Buhari administration. Some of his attackers have been politicians, public commentators, and secessionist campaigners of the outlawed IPOB and Yoruba Nation groups.

The politics of decamping and defection in Nigeria is nothing new. Even though some observers pointed out that Fani-Kayode had abused, insulted, and disparaged everyone indiscriminately, this could be likewise said of other noteworthy politicians like Asiwaju Ahmed Tinubu and Mallam Nasir El-rufai at different occasions in the past, who had vented their rage against General Buhari in disturbingly unprintable language, before they also swallowed their vomit and set up a political company with him in the same party.

Yet, unlike others, the central question being considered by many is actually what value Fani-Kayode could add to the Buhari administration at this point, which made the red carpet to be rolled out to him as he jumped ship into the APC.

Speaking with journalists after his meeting with President Buhari, FFK said it was time for him to cross over to join hands with the Head of State in moving Nigeria forward. He added that Nigerians must remain united to salvage the country from the stranglehold of those bent on destroying its progress. He also advised Nigerians not to allow any person or group to divide them or enable the disintegration of the country.

As Fani-Kayode put it: The point is that I felt it was time to do the right thing, to put Nigeria first. When the time is right, we change direction to join forces and join hands to move the country forward. Doing this doesnt mean we are enemies to anybody. Even if we are in another party, the PDP or any other party or group, we can still work together across party, regional, ethnic or religious lines.

Sounding quite reflective, he continued: We must remain one as a nation, and build bridges, work together to move the country forward. The most important thing is for us to understand the fact that Nigeria must not disintegrate and those that want us to end up fighting one another in a war will be put to shame.

My take on Fani-Kayode’s defection from the PDP to APC is not so much about the morality or otherwise of his carpet crossing, but the genuineness of his proclaimed political rebirth from being a highly divisive actor, who had championed an incendiary brand of politics anchored around ethnic and religious identification, to one promoting national unity, tolerance and peaceful coexistence.

To his credit, before his eventual defection to APC, he was noted to have worked closely with some key players in the APC, including Governor Yahaya Bello of Kogi, in resolving some ethnoreligious conflicts in some states of the country.

I can only sincerely hope his better angels take charge this time around, to enable the role of a real bridge-builder rallying together many aggrieved stakeholders of the Nigeria project to work towards the socio-economic and political stability of our nation, which he is eminently qualified to play if he is so sincerely inspired.

By the way, I learn that beyond being Yoruba and Pentecostal Christian, FFK has Muslim and Fulani roots, and hence major traces of the Nigerian diversity, which he ought to be deeply concerned about promoting our national unity in ensuring national security of the Federal Republic of Nigeria.

Yushau A. Shuaib is the author of ‘A Dozen Tips for Media Relations’
www.YAShuaib.com, yashuaib@yahoo.com

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